At 18:00 (GMT+2), the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish a weekly Crude Oil Inventories report containing data on changes in the volume of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the United States. An increase in reserves tends to put pressure on oil prices. The indicator is expected to increase for the fourth week in a row, this time by another 3.767M barrels. The implementation of the forecast could put pressure on oil prices.
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Today, the US dollar is strengthening against its main competitors – the euro, the pound, and the yen. Yesterday, the minutes of the last Fed meeting were published. Officials noted that the prospects for the US economy have improved, and its growth will continue at a moderate pace. The protocol also states that the current monetary policy is correct, which indicates that interest rates will be held at current levels.
At 14:30 (GMT+2) the Minutes of the last ECB meeting on monetary policy will be published, which may contain hints of further actions of the regulator. At the January meeting, the ECB left rates at the same levels. In the follow-up statement of the regulator, it was noted that rates will remain at current levels or lower until inflation reaches the target of 2.0%.
AUD is extremely vulnerable to various risks, and the AUD/USD pair trades near ten-year lows. After large-scale forest fires and a trade war, the Australian economy suffers from the coronavirus epidemic in China, which is its main economic partner.
On the 4-hour chart, an uptrend is forming. The instrument broke the upper border of the sideways channel formed by the borders of Bollinger Bands, the indicator cloud is greatly expanded, which indicates the likely upward trend in the short term. The MACD histogram is in the positive area, rapidly increasing volumes, the signal line crosses the body of the histogram upwards, forming a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the overbought zone, the oscillator lines are reversing downwards.
British Retail Sales data for January are due at 11:30 (GMT+2). Retail Sales indicator measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is the primary indicator of consumer spending, which influences the GDP. Sales are expected to grow by 0.7%, after a decline of 0.6% in December. The implementation of the forecast may facilitate the strengthening of GBP.
The leading index of the British stock exchange FTSE 100 shows ambiguous dynamics after the publication of a large block of macroeconomic statistics. At first, the price fell due to information about a decrease in the average wage level to 2.9% relative to expectations of 3.0%.
The pair continues to be in an uptrend, correcting to a global decline at the end of last year. In the absence of macroeconomic statistics from Switzerland, the dynamics of USD came to the fore, the volatility of which significantly increased as a result of the market reaction to FOMC statistics and reports.
Today, during the Asian session, silver prices show ambiguous trading dynamics, slightly correcting after active growth over the past two days, which brought the instrument to new local highs since January 8. Although the market positively assesses China’s efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus, concerns about negative economic consequences remain, which provides support for shelter assets.
Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is significantly reduced, renewing local lows since November 13. Now, NZD has lost about 0.38% and is preparing to test the level of 0.6350 for a breakdown. The currency is falling amid the publication of optimistic macroeconomic American statistics.