A downtrend is forming on the H4 chart. The instrument is declining sharply, breaking down the lower border of Bollinger Bands; the indicator cloud is expanded, which indicates the likely preservation of the downtrend in the short term. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and gradually building up volumes. The signal line is crossing the body of the histogram from above forming a signal to open sells. Stochastic is about to cross the oversold zone from above, keeping a signal to open short positions.
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Ifo Indicator of Business Optimism for January is due at 11:00 (GMT+2). The index is based on a survey of managers of 7 thousand manufacturing enterprises, the construction sector, wholesale and retail trade. At the same time, an assessment of the current business situation and expectations for the next 6 months is carried out. It is expected that in January the figure will grow from 96.3 to 97.0 points, the best indicator since last June. The implementation of the forecast may give support to EUR.
The S&P 500 wide-spectrum index started the week with a gap due to the worsening Chinese epidemiological situation.
The USD/CHF pair has reached lows at 0.9600 and is consolidating within the sideways range. The annual World Economic Forum in Switzerland disappointed investors. Instead of discussing geopolitical risks and their impact on the global economy, participants devoted almost all the time to issues of gender equality, climate and the rejection of the use of disposable plastic bags.
NZD shows a “bearish” trend against USD today, updating local lows from December 18. The pair opened with a negative gap and is losing about 0.30%, trading near the level of 0.6570.
Today, during the Asian session, oil prices are falling slightly, showing a negative gap at the opening of trading for the new week and renewing local lows from October 23, 2019.
USD shows strong growth against JPY during today's Asian session. The pair quickly wins back its losses on a sharp gap down at the opening of trading. USD added about 0.21% and is preparing to test the level of 109.10 for a breakout.
The USD/CAD pair continues to grow actively.
EUR shows flat trading during today's Asian session, slightly correcting after an active decline last Friday, when the instrument managed to update local lows of December 2. EUR declined amid the publication of good statistics on business activity from Germany, which was left without due attention. Markit Manufacturing PMI in January rose from 43.7 to 45.2 points against a forecast of 44.5 points. Services PMI over the same period increased from 52.9 to 54.2 points, which also turned out to be better than the expectations of 53 points. Composite PMI in January strengthened from 50.2 to 51.1 points against the forecast of 50.5 points. Today, there are not many interesting statistics expected, therefore it is possible that the pair will continue to develop ambiguous trading dynamics.
The price may grow.
On the daily chart, an upward trend forms as the wave of the higher level C of (B), within which the local correction iv of C ended. Now, the fifth wave v of C is forming, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of v has developed, and a downward correction is forming as the wave (ii) of v. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will grow to the levels of 1650.00–1700.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1515.11.