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At 20:00 (GMT+2), the US Fed will publish the minutes of its last meeting. It may contain an assessment of the current situation in the American economy in connection with the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, as well as hints of further steps by the Fed. In March, the regulator reduced the interest rate twice and now it is at 0.25%. A number of economic support measures have also been put in place, including an unlimited program of quantitative easing.
USD is moderately strengthening against EUR and JPY but weakening against GBP. Yesterday’s February JOLTs Job Openings data were better than market expectations. The indicator fell from 7.012 million to 6.882 million instead of the expected 6.600 million. However, the March statistics can be much worse, since it will take into account the restriction of the work of enterprises due to quarantine. Meanwhile, the US government plans to partially open some regions of the country, despite the growth in the number of cases, which has already exceeded 400K.
At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish a weekly report on changes in volumes of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the United States. An increase in stocks usually leads to pressure on prices. Stocks are expected to grow by 10.133 million barrels. The realization of the forecast can put pressure on quotes.
At 14:30 (GMT+2), Canada will publish data on the number of issued building permits for March. The indicator records a monthly change in the number of permits issued by the Canadian government for the construction of real estate and is one of the most important indicators of the construction sector. In March the index is expected to decrease by 4.5% after rising by 4.0% in February. The realization of the forecast can put pressure on CAD.
At 14:15 (GMT+2) in Canada, March data on the number of new houses starts will be published. It records the change in the number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is one of the most important indicators of the construction market. The indicator is expected to decrease from 210.1K to 180.0K units. The realization of the forecast can put pressure on CAD.
On Monday, gold strengthened after reports that the US was preparing new stimulus measures worth $1.4 trillion. Also, the instrument was supported by a report on the difficulties associated with finding a precious metal for funds operating in the United States. Purchase orders exceed the amount of the asset available for sale. However, resource-oriented economies suspended the purchase of gold due to falling oil prices, so it will take some time to confirm its deficit.
On the H4 chart, a lateral trend has formed. The instrument is trading in the narrow channel formed by the lines of Bollinger Bands; the indicator cloud is narrowed, the preservation of the lateral trend is possible in the short term. MACD histogram is close to the zero level, keeping the minimum volumes; the signal line is moving horizontally without generating a signal to enter the market. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the lines of the oscillator are directed downwards. The signal to open short positions remains.
AUD declines against USD today, retreating from local highs since March 31, updated the day before. The instrument loses about 0.50%, testing the level of 0.6130 for a breakdown.