Forex forecasts and market outlooks

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Morning Market Review

EUR is stable (–0.03%) against USD on Monday, consolidating after a sharp decline last Friday. EUR showed an active decline on Friday, retreating from its local highs and the level of 1.1115, after the publication of a strong report on the US labor market, which in many respects exceeded expectations. In November, the US economy created 266K new jobs with a forecast of growth of only 180K. Last month, the growth rate was 156K (revised upwards from the previous 128K).

USD/CHF: wave analysis

The pair may fall.

On the daily chart, an upward correction of the higher level developed as the second wave ii of 1 of (3), and the third wave iii of 1 of (3) forms. Now, the local correction of the lower level (ii) of iii has ended, and the formation of the wave (iii) of iii has begun, within which an entry momentum has formed as the wave i of (iii). If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction ii of (iii), the pair will fall to the levels of 0.9717–0.9656. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0022.

XAU/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, an upward trend forms as the wave of the higher level C of (B), within which the local correction iv of C ended. Now, the formation of the fifth wave v of C has begun, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of v is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1517.74–1557.48. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1449.75.

Trade Balance. Germany, 09:00 (GMT+2)

At 09:00 (GMT+2), the data on German Trade Balance for October will be published. This indicator captures the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. Its increase is a positive factor for EUR. It is expected that trade balance will remain surplus but may decrease from EUR 19.2B to 18.1B. At the same time, Export may slow down growth from 1.5% to 0.2%, while Imports can decrease by 0.1%. The implementation of the forecast can cause pressure on EUR.

AUD/CAD: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is going to reverse from descending to ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud (0.90219). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (0.90818).