After a significant increase at the end of 2019, the GBP/USD pair entered a stage of tapering consolidation. In the second half of January, the price rose on favorable data on the labor market and major UK indices, while negative data on industrial production were published in the United States.
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This week, the pair is dropping amid growing concern over the economic impact of an outbreak of coronavirus.
On the H4 chart, there is a correction of the downward movement. The instrument is trading between the lower and center lines of Bollinger Bands, the indicator cloud is expanded, which indicates a likely resumption of decline at the end of the correction in the short term. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; the signal line is crossing the zero level and the body of the histogram from above, forming a signal to open short positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the lines of the oscillator are directed upwards. The signal to open long positions remains.
North American WTI Crude Oil continues to decline, reaching 22% of the maximum recorded on January 8. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show a decrease in speculative positions in crude oil by 46.7K, which is expected against the increasing risk of falling energy demand due to the Chinese coronavirus.
USD is showing moderate growth during today's Asian session, recovering from a decline the day before. The instrument adds about 0.1%, testing the level of 0.9700 for a breakout. US macroeconomic statistics released on Monday had a mixed effect on USD. New Home Sales for December fell by 0.4% MoM after falling by 1.1% MoM last month.
Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair shows an ambiguous dynamics of trading after a steady yesterday’s weakening.
Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing slightly, being correcting after yesterday’s decline, which led to the renewing of local lows from December 2, 2019. Now, EUR has added about 0.04%, testing the level of 1.1020 for a breakout. The reason for Monday’s weakening of the euro was the poor macroeconomic statistics from Germany.
As expected, the precious metals market returned to growth after a short correction. Silver, being one of the main safe haven assets, is adding 4.2% to the January 23 low. At the moment, investor interest in the instrument is even higher than in gold. The percentage spread between gold and silver changes in favor of the latter by 1.5%.
Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing slightly, being correcting after yesterday’s decline, which led to the renewing of local lows from December 2, 2019. Now, EUR has added about 0.04%, testing the level of 1.1020 for a breakout. The reason for Monday’s weakening of the euro was the poor macroeconomic statistics from Germany. So, the German Ifo Business Climate Index in January fell from 96.3 to 95.9 points with a forecast of 97 points. The index of economic expectations for the same period fell from 93.9 to 92.9 points, while investors expected its growth to 95 points. The current situation assessment index rose from 98.8 to 99.1 points, which also turned out to be slightly worse than analysts' expectations of 99.2 points.
The pair reduction is possible.
On the 4-hour chart, the formation of the higher level wave C of (2) is taking place, as part of which an upward correction develops as the fourth wave iv of C. At the moment, wave (a) of iv has formed and if the assumption is correct, then it is logical to expect a decrease in the pair in wave (b) of iv to 1.3095–1.3037. The level of 1.3210 is critical and stop loss for this scenario.