Forex forecasts and market outlooks

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Cryptocurrency Market Review

At the beginning of the week, the market made a significant attempt at growth but on Thursday reversed to a downward correction, as a result of which the leading currencies lost most of their positions. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at 9150.00 (+1.6%), Ethereum is at 235.00 (+5.0%), Tether is at 1.0010 (+0.02%), Ripple is trading at 0.1940 (+10.0%), and Bitcoin Cash – around 234.00 (+6.6%). Total market capitalization increased from $260B to $269B. The share of Bitcoin in the market decreased from 64.0% to 62.8%.


Initial Jobless Claims. United States, 14:30 (GMT+2)

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment will be released. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the past week. These data are collected by the Ministry of Labor and published in a weekly report. The number of applications for benefits is used to measure the state of the labor market, as their increase means that fewer people are hiring. The indicator is expected to decline from 1.427 million to 1.375 million.

Trade Balance. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

At 08:00 (GMT+2), German data on the trade balance for May will be published. This indicator records the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. Its increase is a positive factor for the European currency. The balance surplus is expected to reach 5.2B euros. The implementation of the forecast may support the European currency.

Consumer Price Index. China, 03:30 (GMT+2)

At 03:30 (GMT+2), data on the consumer price index in the PRC for June will be released. It is the main indicator of the inflation rate in the country, which records the change in the level of retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utilities, healthcare and so on. It has a significant impact on monetary policy decisions. It is expected that the value will increase from 2.4% to 2.5% YoY and from –0.8% to –0.5% MoM.


EIA Crude Oil Inventories. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)

At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish a weekly Crude Oil Inventories report containing data on changes in the volume of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the United States. An increase in reserves tends to put pressure on oil prices. The indicator is expected to decline for the second week in a row, this time by another 3.400M barrels. If the forecast proves to be true, this may render support to the oil prices.

Housing Starts. Canada, 14:15 (GMT+2)

The data on the Housing Starts in June in Canada will be released at 14:15 (GMT+2). The indicator captures the number of houses the construction of which began in the reporting month, and is one of the most important indicators of the construction market. It is expected that the indicator may increase from 193.5K to 198.0K. If the forecast proves to be true, this may render support to CAD.

Unemployment Rate. Switzerland, 07:45 (GMT+2)

Swiss Unemployment Rate data for June are due at 07:45 (GMT+2). The indicator records the percentage of the number of unemployed citizens older than 18 to the total number of the population able to work. Only registered unemployed citizens are counted. It is expected that the seasonally adjusted indicator will grow from 3.4% to 3.6%, and it will remain at the same level of 3.4% without seasonal adjustment.