The AUD/USD pair moves within a long-term downward trend. In August and September, the price tested the local minimum at 0.6685 several times but, failing to consolidate below it, reversed and went upwards. Over the past few months, a wide rising channel has been forming.
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At 12:00 (GMT+2), the December EU business sentiment index from ZEW will be published. The indicator reflects the difference between the shares of institutional investors and analysts who are optimistic and pessimistic. It is expected that the number of pessimists in the European economy will increase, the figure may be –17.7 points. The implementation of the forecast may put pressure on the euro.
At 12:00 (GMT+2), the December index of business sentiment in Germany from ZEW will be published. The indicator reflects the difference between the shares of institutional investors and analysts who are optimistic and pessimistic. It is expected that the number of optimists in the German economy may exceed the number of pessimists for the first time in eight months. According to forecasts, the figure will be 0.3%, which may support the euro.
At 11:30 (GMT+2), UK data on industrial production for October will be published. The indicator fixes the level of change in the volume of industrial production and utilities in the country. The calculation takes into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It is expected that for October, the volume of industrial production will increase by 0.2%, and the volume of production in the manufacturing industry will decrease by 0.1%, which, however, is less than the September reduction (by 0.4%). A forecast may support the pound.
At 11:30 (GMT+2), UK Q3 GDP data will be published. It is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy, which takes into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. The British economy is expected to decline by 0.2% QoQ and grow from 1.0% to 1.2% YoY. The implementation of the forecast may put pressure on the pound.
The USD/CHF pair consolidates within a narrow range, waiting for USD volatility. There are no noticeable changes in the Swiss currency, and macroeconomic indicators continue to follow the experts’ expectations: for example, the unemployment rate has remained around 2.3%, as in the previous reporting period.
NZD is showing moderate growth against USD during today’s Asian session, recovering from a decline earlier this week. At the moment, the growth of the instrument is about 0.14%, and NZD itself is again approaching local highs of this August at around 0.6575.
USD increases slightly against JPY during today’s Asian session, adding about 0.03%. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions before the Fed and the ECB hold meetings during the week, and JPY, in turn, is stable against the backdrop of market uncertainty.
Despite stability in monetary policy, Canada’s statistic is negative. Thus, the unemployment rate rose immediately by 0.4% to 5.9% against 5.5% in the previous period. The indicator of building permits fell by –1.5% against the forecast of +2.9%.
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the first wave 1 develops within the started third wave (3) of the higher level. Now, a downward correction has ended as the wave iv of 1, and the fifth wave v of 1 develops, within which the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.3275–1.3387. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3026.