At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US data on the Consumer Price Index for June will be released. It is the main indicator of inflation in the country and determines the change in the level of retail prices for a particular basket of goods and services: food, transportation, utilities, healthcare, etc. It has a significant impact on monetary policy decisions. The index is expected to increase on a monthly basis from –0.1% to 0.5%, and on an annual basis it may grow from 0.1% to 0.6%. If the forecast proves to be true, this may render support to USD.
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Today, the pair shows an ambiguous dynamics. The Australian dollar was supported amid rising National Australia Bank Business Confidence Index in June from −20 to 1 point.
The EUR/USD pair shows flat dynamics during Tuesday’s trading session.
EU Industrial Production data for May is due at 11:00 (GMT+2). Industrial Production gauges the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output manufacturers, quarries, and utilities produced. The indicator takes into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the power industry. On a monthly basis, production is expected to grow by 14.5%, while on an annualized basis, it will decline by 20.5% after a decrease of 28.0% in April. If the forecast proves correct, it can support EUR.
On the H4 chart, a downtrend is forming. The instrument is testing the lower border of the Bollinger Bands for a breakdown, and the indicator cloud is expanding. MACD histogram is near the zero level, and its volume is minimal. The signal line is directed downwards, the buy signal is losing its relevance. Stochastic is crossing the oversold zone from above, keeping a signal to open short positions.
EUR shows flat trading dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.1340 after active growth the day before. The growth of EUR at the beginning of the week was of a technical nature, while there are still not many fundamental factors for the uptrend in the instrument. European investors today are focused on the statistics on consumer inflation in Germany in June. In annual terms, inflation retained the same rate of growth (0.9% YoY). In addition, ZEW Institute will report on the dynamics of business sentiment in Germany for July. In the eurozone, the data on industrial production for May, as well as a Bank Lending Survey will be released.
GBP shows ambiguous dynamics of trading during today's morning session.
Today, during the Asian session, oil prices are falling slightly, trying to consolidate below the level of $40 per barrel. The instrument is under pressure since the market waits for the OPEC+ meeting today, where the parties may revise the existing restrictions on oil production volumes downward.
Today, during the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair is growing slightly, continuing to develop the correctional impulse that formed last Thursday.
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the fourth wave (4), and the formation of the wave (5) starts. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (5) is developing, within which a local correction has formed as the wave ii of 1, and the development of the wave iii of 1 is starting. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.3828–1.4052. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3488.