XAU/USD: Fibonacci analysis

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the price tests 1504.60 (correction of 61.8%), however, it still cannot breakout it since the downward oncoming fan is exerting pressure on the quotes. After the breakout of the fan and consolidation above 1515.00 (correction 76.4%), the price may grow to 1531.00 (correction 100.0%). Otherwise, the decline will resume to 1488.50 (correction 38.2%), 1478.50 (correction 23.6%) and 1462.00 (correction 0.0%). Technical indicators generally reflect the possibility of short-term growth. The MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone. Stochastic is pointing upwards.

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the price is in the downward channel and so far has been unsuccessfully testing the levels of 1485.50 (correction 23.6%). After the consolidation below it, the price can fall to 1445.00 (correction 38.2%, line of the rising fan 38.2%, curve 38.2%). Otherwise, after a breakout of the upper border of the downwards channel around 1515.00, the price may rise to 1552.00 (correction 0.0%). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. The MACD histogram is at the zero line, its volumes are insignificant. Stochastic is reversing downwards.

Support and resistance

The decline to 1478.50 (correction 23.6%, H4), 1462.00 (correction 0.0%, H4) and 1445.00 (correction 38.2%, D1) seems likely. The key “bullish” level is 1515.00 (correction 76.4%, H4, downward channel’s upper border, D1). After consolidation above it, growth can continue to 1531.00 (correction 100.0%, H4) and 1552.00 (correction 0.0%, D1).

Resistance levels: 1504.60, 1515.00, 1531.00, 1552.00.

Support levels: 1485.50, 1478.50, 1462.00, 1445.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below 1485.50 with the targets at 1462.00, 1445.00. Stop loss – 1500.00.

Long positions can be opened above 1515.00 with the targets at 1531.00, 1552.00. Stop loss – 1500.00.

Implementation period: 4–5 days.

Scenario

  • Timeframe

    Weekly

  • Recommendation

    SELL STOP

  • Entry Point

    1485.45

  • Take Profit

    1462.00, 1445.00

  • Stop Loss

    1500.00

  • Key Levels

    1445.00, 1462.00, 1478.50, 1485.50, 1504.60, 1515.00, 1531.00, 1552.00

Alternative scenario

  • Timeframe

    Weekly

  • Recommendation

    BUY STOP

  • Entry Point

    1515.10

  • Take Profit

    1531.00, 1552.00

  • Stop Loss

    1500.00

  • Key Levels

    1445.00, 1462.00, 1478.50, 1485.50, 1504.60, 1515.00, 1531.00, 1552.00