Morning Market Review


Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is moderately declining, returning to local lows since the end of November 2019. Now, EUR has lost about 0.08% and is testing the level of 1.1010 for a breakdown. The day before, the instrument showed ambiguous dynamics, although it renewed the mentioned local lows, and the disappointing US Durable Goods Orders data became the main driver of growth. So, Durables excluding the defense and aviation sectors for December fell by 0.9% after rising by 0.1% for November. Analysts predicted zero momentum. During the day, traders wait for the publication of a block of European statistics on consumer confidence in Germany, Italy, and France, as well as on the volume of consumer lending for December in the EU.


Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is slightly decreasing, developing a new “bearish” impulse formed on January 23. GBP is under pressure of a poor UK macroeconomic statistics, as well as the strengthening of the dollar across the entire spectrum of the market. In addition, investors are worried about the ambiguous prospects for trade negotiations between the UK and the EU, which should begin immediately after Brexit at the end of this month. Yesterday’s CBI report on retail sales reflected the preservation of zero growth rates in sales volumes in January, while analysts had expected growth by 3% MoM. The BRC retail price index published today reflected a decline of 0.3% YoY after weakening by 0.4% YoY a month earlier.


Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is actively growing, retreating from the local lows renewed on Tuesday. Now, AUD has added about 0.17%, testing the level of 0.6770 for a breakout. The instrument is supported by strong data on consumer inflation in Australia, published in the morning. Thus, Q4 2019 Consumer Price Index rose by 0.7% QoQ, accelerating from the previous value of +0.5% QoQ. Analysts had expected growth to only +0.6% QoQ. Also, the indicator rose from +1.7% YoY to +1.8% YoY against the neutral forecast. The core RBA inflation index, calculated by the method of truncated average, maintained the previous growth rate of +0.4% QoQ, which coincided with market expectations.


Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is strengthening, developing the correctional impulse that formed at the beginning of the trading week. Despite the publication of poor US Durable Goods Orders statistics, the dollar may grow against the Japanese currency in the near future. However, on Wednesday, a two-day meeting of the Fed begins, at which officials can pay attention to the poor recent statistics, including Durable Goods Orders data published earlier. A change in the interest rate is extremely unlikely, despite a portion of another criticism of the regulator from US President Donald Trump.


Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are relatively stable and are consolidating near the level of 1565.00, where the instrument decreased during an active decline on the eve. The negative dynamics was due to large-scale correction on the stock exchanges, however, the uncertain prospects for the spread of coronavirus continued to significantly support the course. On Wednesday, investors are focused on the start of a two-day meeting of the Fed, following which, as expected, the interest rate will not be changed. The pressure on the regulator, as before, is exerted by US President Donald Trump, who said yesterday that “the time is now” for the next rate cut, since “there is almost no inflation.”

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