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03.08.2020

Manufacturing PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

The UK Manufacturing PMI for July is due at 10:30 (GMT+2). The indicator is compiled from the enterprises responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. At the same time, the attitude of purchasing managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development is evaluated. According to forecasts, the indicator may remain at the same level of 53.6 points.

Morning Market Review

EUR shows flat dynamics of trading during today's Asian session, consolidating after the corrective decline in the instrument at the end of last week. On Friday, after updating record highs since May 2018, EUR fell sharply, which was mainly due to technical factors of taking long profits ahead of the weekend. Additional pressure on EUR positions was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of GDP in the euro zone for Q2 2020. In quarterly terms, GDP showed a 12.1% QoQ decline after a 3.6% QoQ contraction in the prior period. The indicator came out close to its forecasts at –12% QoQ. In annual terms, the decline in GDP in the euro area amounted to 15% YoY, which turned out to be slightly worse than analysts' expectations at the level of –14.5% YoY. In turn, data on consumer inflation in the euro area for July contributed to the strengthening of EUR.

Manufacturing PMI. Germany, 09:55 (GMT+2)

Manufacturing PMI data for July in Germany will be published at 09:55 (GMT+2). The indicator is compiled from the enterprises responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. At the same time, the attitude of purchasing managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development is evaluated. The index is expected to decline from 45.2 to 44.6 points. The implementation of the forecast can put pressure on EUR.

XAU/USD: wave analysis

Upward trend maintains.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) develops, within which the wave 5 of (3) forms. Now, the wave iii of 5 of the lower level is developing, within which the wave (iii) of iii is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 2020.00–2050.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1937.24.