On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130, and above the SMA200 which is directed up. The RSI is about to test from below its longer MA. The Composite is breaking out its longer MA, having formed a Bullish divergence with the price.
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14.10.2019 - 08.10.2019
Yesterday, the pair NZD/USD rose moderately. However, the instrument failed to consolidate at the new highs, and by the end of the daily session, the New Zealand dollar had lost most of its advantage. The pressure is exerted by sharply worsened prospects for concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China, which threatens to further slow the global economy down. Washington blacklisted some Chinese companies, banning them from working with American companies and accusing them of oppressing China’s Muslim minorities.
The European currency showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, continuing to develop a "bearish" impulse formed the day before. Pressure on the euro was exerted by ambiguous statistics on industrial production in Germany.
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) develops, within which a correction ended as the wave ii of 1 of (3). Now, the wave iii of 1 is developing, within which the local correction (ii) of iii has ended, and the third wave (iii) of iii is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.3450–1.3564. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3205.
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the first wave 1 within the started wave (C) of the higher level develops. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) has formed, and the local correction ii of 1 has ended, which has reached the correctional the level of 50%. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 109.35–112.32. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 106.44.
At 08:00 (GMT+2), preliminary September data on the volume of manufacturing orders in Japan will be published. The index reflects the volume of new orders in the industry and has been declining since last October, the last time by 37.1%. The continuation of this trend may put pressure on the yen.
At 01:30 (GMT+2), data on Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index in Australia will be published. The indicator captures the level of consumer confidence and is a leading indicator of consumer spending and economic activity. The data are calculated based on a survey of consumers regarding their assessment of economic prospects. The last time the indicator was negative, amounting to −1.7%. Continuation of the trend will put pressure on the Australian currency.
At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves in the United States from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be released. Also to the data on oil reserves, the most important in the report, it contains data on the amount of gasoline and distillates in the USA. A reduction in oil reserves traditionally leads to an increase in oil prices, and an increase leads to a decrease. Last time, US oil inventories fell by 5.920 million barrels. Continuation of this trend may support the quotes.
At 19:50 (GMT+2) in Denver, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a paper entitled “Data Dependence in an Evolving Economy”. The speeches of the officials of such a high rank traditionally attract the attention of investors, as they can shed light on the further actions of the monetary authorities.
At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on the volume of building permits issued in August will be published in Canada. The monthly indicator records the change in the number of applications issued by the Canadian government for the construction of real estate and is one of the most important indicators of the construction sector. It is predicted that for August, the volume of permits issued will decrease by 2.0% after rising by 3.0% a month earlier. The implementation of forecasts may put pressure on the Canadian dollar.