USD rose significantly against JPY on Monday, recovering to the levels of October 2. JPY reacted by lowering to the revision of official estimates of the Japanese economy for the near future. Additional pressure was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Coincident Indicators in August declined from 99.7 to 99.3 points with the forecast of 101.1 points. Leading Indicators Index for the same period fell from 93.7 to 91.7 points with a forecast of 93.6 points.
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14.10.2019 - 08.10.2019
Yesterday, the USD/CHF pair was trading in various directions, closing with a slight “bearish” advantage. USD was under certain pressure by an alarming start to a new round of negotiations between the United States and China. Investors fear that negotiations may drag on, and the parties will not come to any decisions, which will mean a new wave of the introduction of mutual import duties. As it became known the day before, the Chinese delegation is not going to make US concessions on the issue of reducing subsidies for its own economy.
European currency showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on Monday, retreating from updated local highs of September 25. Pressure on the euro was provided by weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany. August Factory Orders decreased by 0.6% MoM after a decrease of 2.1% MoM in the previous month. Analysts expected a more significant decrease of –1.5% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator collapsed in August by 6.7% YoY after a decrease of 5.0% YoY in July.
The price may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, an upward trend within the third wave of the higher level iii of 1 of (5) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii of 1 is developing, within which the wave v of (iii) is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 40.03–42.56. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 36.47.
The price may fall.
On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction of the higher level forms as the wave (4), within which the wave B of (4) ended. Now, the development of the wave C of (4) has started, within which the wave i of C is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 47.39–44.73. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 52.27.
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) ended. Now, the formation of the third wave of the higher level has started, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) has formed, and a downward correction has developed as the wave ii of 1, which has reached the correctional level 62%. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2704–1.2867. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2197.
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave 2, within which the fifth wave 5 of (C) of 2 formed. Now, the development of the third wave 3 is starting, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (1) of 3 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.1110–1.1250. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0876.
At 08:00 (GMT+2), preliminary data on the volume of industrial production for August will be published in Germany. The indicator fixes the level of change in the volume of industrial production and utilities in the country. The calculation takes into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It is projected that production will decline for the third month in a row, this time by another 0.1%, which could put pressure on the euro.