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19.08.2019 - 13.08.2019
USD weakens against GBP, strengthens against JPY and moves horizontally against EUR.
Yesterday, oil quotes fall and today dropped to the area of 53.70. Investors fear the beginning of a recession in the USA, reflected by an inverted yield curve of ten-year and two-year US bonds.
The GBP/USD pair has maintained a downward trend and has lost more than 400 points in the last two and a half trading weeks. Having reached the lower border of the channel at the level of 1.2015, the price reversed to corrective growth. Over the past few days, it has already gained about 100 points and is trading near a strong resistance level of 1.2110.
Quotations of the index began to decline on Wednesday, after the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds fell below the yield on two-year bonds, which is an early sign of a recession in the US economy.
The index reflects changes in the monthly US retail sales, excluding cars. It is an important indicator of consumer spending, as well as the pace of development of the US economy. The data above the forecast strengthen the USD, and the data below the forecast affect the national currency negatively. It is predicted that the July the index will remain at the same level of 0.4%, and total sales will fall from 0.4% to 0.3%.
The index measures the economic well-being of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia area. Values above zero indicate improved conditions in the manufacturing sector, while values below zero indicate deterioration. Data is taken from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal District. The index may provide some assistance in predicting the US ISM. The data above the forecast strengthen the USD, and the data below the forecast affect the national currency negatively. It is predicted that the index will fall from 21.8 to 10.0 points in August.
This week, the EUR/USD pair was corrected downwards amid strong US inflation data and poor EU industrial production and German GDP. However, yesterday the yield of ten-year US Treasury bonds fell below the yield of two-year ones, which is a serious indicator of the economic downturn. The inverted yield curve weakened the US stock market but USD resisted, with minor losses. US-China confrontation continues to escalate. Yesterday, President Trump linked the conclusion of a trade deal with the “humane” actions of the Chinese authorities against the protesting population of Hong Kong. Beijing may take this statement as interference in internal affairs, which could lead to new complications in the negotiations.