After the meeting of the Bank of Japan, the JPY dynamic confirms the main points of it. The current form of monetary policy is really bearing fruit: macroeconomic indicators are improving, and market participants expect positive results from data on retail sales and industrial production.
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Since the beginning of the year, the EUR/USD pair has been under strong pressure from a number of factors, reaching the November lows of last year near 1.1000. The main reason for the decline is the continued strengthening of USD against most major currencies. Today, investors wait for the Fed's Interest Rate Decision. During this month, there were opinions regarding a possible easing of monetary policy, however, the current high positions of the national currency indicate the opposite, and the rate is likely to stay the same.
Today, during the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is growing slightly, being corrected after yesterday’s active decline, as a result of which the dollar retreated from its local highs from December 11, 2019. Yesterday, USD was under pressure of poor US Durable Goods Orders data.
Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are relatively stable and are consolidating near the level of 1565.00, where the instrument decreased during an active decline on the eve.
Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is moderately declining, returning to local lows since the end of November 2019. Now, EUR has lost about 0.08% and is testing the level of 1.1010 for a breakdown. The day before, the instrument showed ambiguous dynamics, although it renewed the mentioned local lows, and the disappointing US Durable Goods Orders data became the main driver of growth. So, Durables excluding the defense and aviation sectors for December fell by 0.9% after rising by 0.1% for November. Analysts predicted zero momentum. During the day, traders wait for the publication of a block of European statistics on consumer confidence in Germany, Italy, and France, as well as on the volume of consumer lending for December in the EU.
Today, during the Asian session, oil prices are growing moderately, continuing to develop the “bullish” momentum formed yesterday. The instrument also retreats from its local lows since October 21, 2019, which were renewed as a result of a five-day last week’s decline.
The pair may fall.
On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (3) develops, within which the wave i of 3 forms. Now, a local correction is developing as the fourth wave (iv) of i. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.9550–0.9500. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9818.
The pair may fall.
On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the wave 5 of (5) forms. Now, an upward correction has ended as the fourth wave of the lower level iv of 5, and the wave v of 5 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.6663–0.6545. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6935.
At 09:00 (GMT+2), German data on the consumer climate index Gfk for February will be published. The indicator measures the degree of consumer confidence in the strength of the economy and is a leading indicator for consumer spending. The value is expected to remain unchanged at 9.6 points.