Forex forecasts and market outlooks

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21.10.2019 - 15.10.2019

People's Bank of China Interest Rate Decision. China, 03:30 (GMT+2)

The decision of People's Bank of China on the interest rate is due at 03:30 (GMT+2). This year, the Chinese regulator again began to reduce the rate, did it twice and brought the figure to 4.20%. However, the state of the PRC economy continues to deteriorate. In Q3 2019, China's GDP again slowed down, this time to 6.0%. Under these conditions, the People’s Bank of China may well lower the rate once again or apply other measures of economic support.

Exports and Imports. Japan, 01:50 (GMT+2)

At 01:50 (GMT+2) in Japan, data on changes in the volumes of exports and imports of goods and services for September will be released. It is expected that in the face of reducing global demand and trade conflicts, both indicators will continue to decline, albeit at a slower rate than in August. Exports may decrease by 4.0%, and Imports may decline by 2.8%. The implementation of the forecast could put pressure on JPY.

GBP/NZD: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the blue line is directed upwards, while the red one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines have become support (2.0231) and resistance (2.0334) levels respectively

EUR/GBP: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the blue line is directed downwards, while the red one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (0.8596). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (0.8638).

GBP/USD: uptrend will continue

The GBP/USD pair continues to grow rapidly, having gained more than 800 points since the end of last trading week. The main catalysts are the fall in demand for the American currency amid poor statistics on key sectors of the US economy and the growth of investor interest in the pound due to the acceleration of UK GDP growth. The price has clearly changed the downward direction to the upward one.

XAU/USD: Fibonacci analysis

On the H4 chart, the price has reversed near the upper border of the descending channel and is trying to break down through an opposing ascending fan. Breakdown of the level of 1487.00 (ratio 50.0%, the midline of Bollinger Bands) will give the prospect of a further decline to 1481.25 (ratio 61.8%) and 1474.00 (ratio 76.4%). Otherwise, growth may resume to 1501.00 (ratio 23.6%).