USD weakens against GBP and JPY but strengthens against EUR.
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18.07.2019 - 12.07.2019
NZD continues to strengthen against USD.
This week, oil quotes are under pressure from new complications in US-China trade negotiations and the expected detente in US-Iranian relations. On Tuesday, President Trump said that the deal with China was still far away, and the day before The Wall Street Journal reported that the negotiations had reached an impasse due to disagreements over the US restrictions on Huawei.
The index determines the economic well-being of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia area. Values above zero indicate improved conditions in the manufacturing sector, while values below zero indicate worsening conditions. The data are taken from a survey of about 250 manufacturers of the Federal District of Philadelphia. The index may be of some help in predicting US ISM. The data above the forecast strengthen the USD, and the data below the forecast affect the national currency negatively. The index is projected to rise from 0.3 to 5.0 points in July.
Gold quotes for the fourth week in a row are traded near the upper border of the central Murrey channel at 1406.25 ([5/8]). The level of 1437.50 ([6/8]), which has already been unsuccessfully tested this month, is seen as the key for the "bulls".
Bank of America shares are traded at a two-month high, adding 10% since the beginning of June. Yesterday, the emitter reported for Q2 with results above the market expectations. Also, the company reported that the interest rate margin, which is a criterion for the profitability of lending, has decreased. Earnings per share rose by 17.4% (YoY) by USD 0.74. In addition, the company announced an increase in quarterly dividends by 20%.
Caterpillar shares are trading at a discount of 2.8% to a monthly maximum. Since May’s 6-month low, quotes rose by more than 13%. Tomorrow, July 19, the register of shareholders for a quarterly dividend of $1.03 with payment in August will be closed. Next week, July 24, Q2 2019 report will be released.
This week, the pair had ambiguous dynamics: first, it dropped to the level of 1.1200, but then growth started. USD is pressured by weak data on the construction market and the difficult situation around the US-PRC trade negotiations. In June, the number of issued building permits decreased from 1.299 to 1.220 million. The new houses construction indicator fell from 1.265 to 1.253 million.
On the 4-hour chart, an upward movement correction is observed, the instrument decreases along the lower border of Bollinger bands, the indicator cloud is expanded, reflecting that the downward trend is likely to persist in the short term. The MACD histogram is in the negative area, its volumes are minimal, the signal line is preparing to cross the zero line downwards, after which a signal to open short positions will be formed. Stochastic crossed the border of the oversold zone downwards; the sell signal is still relevant.
This week, LTC quotes had ambiguous dynamics. Down in the area of 75.00 (Murrey [-2/8]), the price reversed and began to rise, having won back the losses. Currently, the level of 100.00 (Murrey [0/8]) is the key for the "bulls". After its breakout, the price will return to the Murrey trade range and will be able to reach the levels of 112.50 (Murrey [1/8]) and 125.00 (Murrey [2/8]).